Mike Kueber's Blog

September 21, 2010

NFL – Week 2

Filed under: Entertainment,Sports — Mike Kueber @ 1:28 pm
Tags: ,

Picking NFL winners is proving more difficult than I expected.  For Week 1, I followed the Vegas line for every game and finished in the middle of the Hill’s & Dale’s pack at 10-6.  I would have done 11-5 if I had simply picked the home team for every game. 

This week I decided to go more with my gut, and I picked four upsets:

  • I picked the Cincinnati Bengals at home to upset the Baltimore Ravens because the Ravens would have a let-down after their big victory last week over the Jets – I win, Bengals win by five!
  • I picked the Kansas City Chiefs on the road to upset the Browns at Cleveland because the Browns are losers – I win, the Browns played to their pedigree.
  •  I picked the Detroit Lions at home to upset the Philadelphia Eagles because the Eagles stunk last week and the Lions played well in a loss to the Bears – I lose, what the hell was I thinking?  Philadelphia is a winner and Detroit is a loser.  A famous coach once said that a team is never as bad as it feels after a loss and never as good as it feels after a win.  I need to remember that.
  • I picked the New York Giants on the road to upset the Indianapolis Colts because I thought the game was in New York and Indy looked bad in their first game – I lose, the Colts are winners, the game was in Indy and they slaughtered the Giants.  I don’t know how I made that mistake.  The Colts were picked by 5 points, and I wouldn’t have considered picking against them on a home game.

Although I was 2-2 on the upsets, I once again finished in the middle of the Hill’s & Dale’s pack with a record of 9-7.  Despite everyone’s expectation that picking winners would become easier as we developed a better understanding of each team’s ability, Week 2 was more difficult than Week 1 for everyone:

  • Las Vegas regressed from 10-6 in Week 1 to 9-7 in Week 2.
  • The home team regressed from 11-5 in Week 1 to 7-9 in Week 2.
  • The Hill’s & Dale’s pool winner regressed from 13-3 in Week 1 to 12-4 in Week 2.

Overall, I am 19-13 and tied for 13th place out of 37 players.  Vegas is also 19-13.  Mike Shanzer leads with 23-9.  Next week I plan to eliminate both the mental (Eagles/Lions) and physical mistakes (Giants/Indy) and make some money.

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