Mike Kueber's Blog

April 4, 2012

Aphorism of the Week #12 – Don’t count your chickens until they are hatched.

Filed under: Aphorism — Mike Kueber @ 9:53 pm
Tags: ,

The conventional wisdom has been that the Republican Party is in big electoral trouble because of its opposition to illegal immigrants at a time when the population of Hispanics is exploding in America.  The rational of the conventional wisdom is that Hispanic voters will be turned off by a political party that is perceived as unsympathetic to illegal Hispanic immigrants. 

That rationale makes some sense, but I have always argued that, after the issue of illegal immigration is resolved, Hispanic voters will gravitate ultimately toward the political party that embraces conservative, traditional values.  An article in today’s San Antonio Express-News, however, destroys a fundamental premise that the conventional wisdom is based on – i.e., the exploding Hispanic population will result in dramatically increased Hispanic voters.    According to the article (and US Census numbers), the number of Hispanic registered voters in America decreased dramatically from 2008 to 2010 – from 11.6 million to 10.9 million.  Experts are speculating about reasons for the decrease, but they have been unable to develop a compelling answer.  Ironically, the state with the biggest increase in Hispanic registered voters is Arizona, even though Arizona is being boycotted by some groups because of its alleged hostility toward illegal immigrants. 

Liberal democrats are fond of saying that demographics are electoral destiny.  I say, “Don’t count your chickens until they’ve hatched.”

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1 Comment »

  1. you know, a bunch of chickens running around is kinda hard to count…

    q

    Comment by q — April 6, 2012 @ 7:26 pm | Reply


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