Mike Kueber's Blog

October 23, 2012

The undecided voter

Filed under: Issues,Politics — Mike Kueber @ 3:40 pm
Tags: ,

As the presidential campaign goes into its final two weeks, Romney appears to have caught Obama in the nationwide popular vote and is closing the gap in the swing states – all riding on the momentum he earned in the first debate.  If I were a betting man, I would say that Romney is now the frontrunner (and he debated like one last night), yet the on-line betting cite Intrade.com lists Obama as having a 59% chance of prevailing, and that suggests to me that my optimism is unjustified. 

Because the election is so close, its outcome will turn on each candidate’s GOTV efforts (Get out the Vote) and his ability to persuade undecided voters.  Although the GOTV efforts obviously apply to much larger numbers of voters, the pundits in the media seem obsessed with the few remaining undecided voters.  In fact, they wonder how a voter can be undecided so late in the game.

I haven’t bothered to give the undecided voter much thought, but last week my brother Kelly posted something on my Facebook page about what he thought of the campaigns:     

  • I think people vote because of their dislike for one candidate and not because of whether they like the person they are voting for. Therefore if you do not listen or watch these guys you do not get angry towards any of them. Kind of like watching a sporting event, if you watch the whole game and your team loses a close one it can be upsetting but if you just catch the score after the game it is not as big of deal! My point is I do not listen to or watch the political talk shows any more so it does not bother me as much who wins the elections! But that is just me ,I know some people love that stuff!

Essentially, Kelly is saying that some voters don’t pay a lot of attention and don’t care who wins.  Back in my younger days, it was more politically correct to take assume that position; today, not so much. 

I can see how campaigning to win Kelly’s vote would be like herding cats.  That’s why Karl Rove gets paid the big bucks.


1 Comment »

  1. the odds are affected by past elections where the incumbant rarely looses. kinda like dallas cowboy and UT fans over betting…


    Comment by Q — October 27, 2012 @ 4:21 pm | Reply

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