Although I only collected 382 votes (5.3%) in my City Council race, those votes were enough to prevent either of the other two candidates from obtaining a majority – 49% and 45%. Without a majority, the other candidates must participate in a run-off election on June 15th, which is five weeks after the initial election on May 11th.
Although I would have loved to have been in the run-off, I don’t envy the additional effort that Rolando Briones and Ron Nirenberg will have to put into their campaigns. They have already been running aggressively for a year or so and must be exhausted. Now they have to persuade their exhausted voters to go to the polls once more.
Actually, there are two ways for one of the candidates to prevail in the run-off: (1) get more of his voters back to polls, or (2) get more of my voters to switch to him. The conventional wisdom is that older, conservative voters are more reliable, and that would portend well for Rolando Briones, who is more conservative than Ron Nirenberg. Plus, Rolando has more campaign money left over, but he also has to make up for a deficit in excess of 300 votes.
With respect to the direction my 382 voters will take, I initially thought they would migrate to Rolando because he and I tended toward conservative positions and were fighting for the same conservative voters. Upon further reflection, however, I now believe that they will gravitate toward Ron Nirenberg because that is what happened to me.
Earlier this week, after discussing a possible endorsement with Rolando, I sent the following email to Ron’s campaign:
- “I have decided to vote for Ron Nirenberg in the District 8 run-off because of his campaign’s focus on transparency and ethics. Although I believe the Express-News coverage of Rolando’s Briones’s campaign has been grossly unfair, that factual basis for the coverage has not been refuted. Ron Nirenberg appears to be the right person to minimize the influence of special interests and restore confidence in the City Council, and he will have my vote.”
June 15th will be an interesting night.