Mike Kueber's Blog

October 27, 2011

More horse-race reporting on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination

Filed under: Issues,Politics — Mike Kueber @ 5:39 pm
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The race to become the 2012 Republican presidential nominee has been exceptionally fluid and dynamic.  The conventional explanation for this is that President Obama’s attempt to transform America has motivated millions of Americans to resist the transformation.  Although the defining act of repudiation for the motivated millions will be to show President Obama the door in 2012, a critical preliminary act will be the selection of a worthy replacement.  That is why the Republican electorate is remarkably tuned-in to the campaigns and is responsive to campaign developments.  In the end, this heightened interest will result in a battle-tested candidate taking on President Obama in November 2012.

As I previously reported, horse-race reporting generally relies on polls (and pundits).  According to the most recent polls, this is a four-person race:

  • Cain’s numbers are exploding upward,
  • Romney’s are drifting downward,
  • Perry’s are crashing downward, and
  • Gingrich’s are drifting upward.

My horse-race reporting incorporates off-track betting numbers at the world-famous Intrade.com.  As of last night:

  • Romney was at 68.9%,
  • Perry was at 12.7%,
  • Cain was at 7.5%, and
  • Gingrich was at 4.0%.

This tells me that Cain’s campaign has caught fire, but the smart money thinks that Cain’s campaign is fundamentally and can’t win the nomination.  In fact, Cain’s campaign is so weak that it will be Perry, not Cain, who gets to go head-to-head with Romney at the denouement of this process.

Personally, I would be more skeptical of Cain’s demise if the obits were coming from media pundits.  But the media pundits are not issuing any obits on Cain, probably because of their ingrained political correctness.  I have a huge amount of respect, however, for the smart-money betters, and if they think Cain’s campaign is quixotic, then he is probably fighting a losing battle.

Incidentally, Marco Rubio’s self-inflicted wound concerning his parents’ exile status from Cuba has not significantly diminished he VP prospects:

  • Marco Rubio at 30.0%,
  • Herman Cain at 6.5%,
  • Rob Portman at 6.5%, and
  • Chris Christie at 6.0%.

And the chances of a Republican replacing President Obama continue to be 50%-50%.

September 25, 2011

Updated odds for the Republican presidential candidates

Filed under: People,Politics — Mike Kueber @ 2:06 am
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The groundswell for Mitt Romney is growing.  Intrade.com currently lists him as the 45% favorite to earn the Republican nomination, while Rick Perry has dropped to 23%. Almost as dramatic a change, Chris Christie has supplanted Sarah Palin for third place. He is listed at 9% and she is at 8%. Huntsman is at 4%, Paul at 3%, and Bachmann at 2%. Surprisingly, Herman Cain remains at 1% despite a winning debate on Thursday and a victorious straw poll on Saturday, both in Florida. Newt Gingrich is also at 1%, and everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the nomination.

Perhaps the media will stop callling Perry the frontrunner.