There has been talk for months and years that the demographics of America favor the Democratic Party because of the growing Hispanic population. Most of this conjecture is based on the assumption that most Hispanics will vote Democratic, especially with the Republican Party taking such a strong position against illegal immigrants. Although many moderates in the Republican Party accept this worrisome prognosis, there are others who claim that most Hispanics have conservative values (social and fiscal) and this ultimately will dictate their political destination. I think both viewpoints contain some truth.
An analogous situation involves union workers. These people have conservative values, but are attracted to the political party that wants to treat them as a special interest. The result is that union organizations have absolute fealty to the Democratic Party and a significant number of union voters vote Democratic. But the Republicans have been earning a significant percentage of union voters ever since McGovern scared them toward Nixon.
I think the same thing will be true of Hispanic voters in the future. Hispanic organizations will kowtow to the Democratic Party and Hispanic voters will vote Democratic more often than justified by a concordance of values. But because of a concordance of values, Republican candidates will also amass large numbers of Hispanic voters even as the illegal-immigration mess percolates, and those numbers will grow significantly after the mess is resolved.
Incidentally, with all this talk of the ascendancy of the Democratic Party, I have noticed that actual facts seem to be going in the other direction, at least in Texas. A few months ago, an Hispanic Democratic state legislator from the Valley, Aaron Pena, switched to the Republican Party. Then last week, the Texas Tribune announced another switch from South Texas – J.M. Lozano. Could it be that these legislators know more about what is happening than do the pundits? That wouldn’t be the first time?